Syracuse (WSYR-TV) - Most economists believe we are either out of or about to be out of the recession. One key to for sure that we’re out is industrial production.
Total industrial production worldwide has been a very reliable indicator of whether we’re in recession or not.
Any time the total production is below zero, we are in recession. Looking back at 2001 – 2002 recession we can see there was negative production, but when we got positive – we were out of recession. But in the latest recession we saw a huge drop off on both national and global production. Everything ground to a standstill and production dropped nearly 20% worldwide.
The good news is not only have we seen the numbers turn positive, they’ve come back strong. Total production in emerging countries is at about the 20% level, that’s high. And total, globally, just shy of 10%.
Again, when it is positive, which it is right now, it likely indicates that the recession is behind us.
