60s Return, but only briefly.... (9-10-12)

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Published: 9/10/2012 5:43 pm

Updated: 9/10/2012 5:47 pm

Here is a record that snuck by me: most consecutive days with a high temperature of 70 degrees or better. Today’s high is 68 F which makes it the first time since June 4th that we’ve failed to reach 70 degrees. That is 97 straight days! I figured it was a pretty impressive feat for Syracuse but little did I know as I went back over 100+ years of record keeping that I would not find another streak as long. In fact, second place is a full week behind what we just accomplished.

Year	Consecutive Days 70 F+
2012	97
2005	90
1993	85
2010	83
1959	83

You can add that record along with the fact we’ve had the 2nd most 90 degree days and 80 degree days in a year.

The weather during the upcoming week is remarkably quiet. The same area of high pressure that built into the Northeast late yesterday and resulted in our first sub 70 degree day in 3 months is going to control our weather the rest of the week. This air mass is quite dry and we should end up with clear skies for many days.

In fact, I used a program called BUFKIT to look at a profile of the atmosphere forecasted by the NAM through late Thursday and moisture (and thus clouds) will be lacking.

The x-axis of this graph goes ahead in time from right to left on the screen (the current time starts at the very right) and as you go up the y-axis you are going up in height in the atmosphere. When the computer model is forecasting moisture you see green and when skies are clear you see black. The takeaway is there is not much moisture around for the next 3 days. You see the green with today’s fair weather cumulus clouds (above ‘today’) and then some moisture higher up tomorrow. Actually, you may not even notice any clouds tomorrow. I saw on the same product above there is not much lift up where that moisture is so it may stay as water vapor and not turn into clouds.

Temperatures look to warm nicely as this air mass modifies over the next few days. We should have a streak of 80 degree days from Wednesday through the end of the week and perhaps into the start of the weekend. It may be we don’t see a return to below normal temperatures until mid next week. Here is a look at temperatures at 5,000 ft and whether they will be above or below normal. This data comes from the GFS ensembles and is a forecast for next Tuesday.

This air aloft is good proxy for figuring out temperature down at the ground and this, along with data from the European model, suggests 60s returning to central New York later next week.

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