A Sunday Morning Nor'Easter Update...(4-22-12)
Just a few early Sunday observations about our Nor’Easter. We’ve been tracking the potential for this storm since early in the week and there are some things that are becoming clearer.-Storm tracking too far west for snow tonight in Syracuse. The storm will hug the coast through today and then take a track inland tonight into tomorrow. This will bring the low inland and into eastern, maybe even central, New York on Monday. The models seem to be coming to a better consensus on this. Just a couple of days ago the European model had the low moving through western New England which would have increased the chance for snow for us. Now it too is tracking the storm into New York State which means warmer air and rain for Syracuse.
Image from the European model valid Monday Evening. It shows low pressure in central New York and not western New England like it was suggesting late last week.
-Parts of western New York will get a late season snowstorm. Winter storm watches are up for western New York and as far as the extreme western Finger Lakes. Even with the westward shift to the storm these areas are still likely to be cold enough for snow, and over higher elevations it will be a heavy snow. Some of the higher elevations south of Buffalo will end up with more than a foot of snow. Although not under a watch, places like Waterloo and Watkins Glen and maybe even Ithaca should be on guard for some accumulating snow tonight and early Monday. There will be a period tonight where it precipitates very hard. That will cool the lower atmosphere and over the Finger Lakes, where the temperatures are more boderline, the rain will mix with and perhaps even change to snow.. That means there will be a several hour period tonight where accumulating snow is possible in the areas I mentioned above. There could even be a Winter Weather Advisory posted for counties like Seneca, Schuyler and Tompkins County. It would not surprise me if snow briefly mixes in with rain tonight over the higher elevations of Cayuga, Cortland and, yes, even Onondaga counties.
-Even if we are less concerned about snow we will get a good dose of rain. Between Midnight tonight and Monday evening we think 1 to 1 ¾” of rain will fall across central New York. It shouldn’t be much of a concern because as of 2 days ago we were about 2 inches below normal in rainfall for the month of April.
-Most of the rain falls by the end of the Monday morning rush hour. I mentioned above the rain totals are through tomorrow evening but in all honesty, most of that will fall by about 8 or 9 am tomorrow. The strongest lift in the atmosphere will be over us the last half of tonight then quickly shift to our north tomorrow morning. Much of tomorrow will be spent with lighter rain showers.
-There is still the chance for snow in the air at least Monday night and Tuesday morning. The storm will be at its strongest early Monday and will slowly weaken after that. Unfortunately it will slow down in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame and move to our north. West southwesterly winds circulating around the low will usher in cold enough air that some snow showers will mix in with the lingering rain showers. Right now we think the precipitation will be light enough that there wouldn’t be any accumulation.
So there is the latest on the storm. While I don’t expect big changes in the models there will probably be smaller changes so make sure you check out our newscasts this evening with meteorologist Julie Weiden. The new model data will be in and she will have the latest on the storm.
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