A month's worth of rain already... (6-11-13)
It only took 11 days but June 2013 is already wetter than a normal June. Of course, a record-breaking last Thursday was the biggest culprit in adding water to the rain gauge at hancock Field but we’ve had our share of other rainy days.
Still, we have a long way to go before the June rain total approaches a monthly record. Here is a list of the wettest June’s:
|June 11 (thru 5 pm)||.16”|
|Month So Far||3.40”|
Of course, 1972 was the year the remnants of Hurricane Agnes moved through the Northeast and New York State. So we still have quite a ways to go before we talk out this June being in the top list of wettest Junes. This June’s rainfall is only about 20% of the record total of 1922.Does this cool and wet weather so far in June mean we are predestined to that weather pattern right into July and August? No, not necessarily. Just last June we started out somewhat cool with rain on 7 of the first 10 days of the month and we still ended up with a hot summer overall with 25 days when we reached or exceeded 90 degrees. By the way, this June only 5 out of the first 10 days had rain.June 2010 was also had a wet start with almost three inches of rain to start the month. Still, the months of June, July and August all ended up with above normal temperatures.There is another chance for rain on Thursday across central New York and the culprit is an area of low pressure that pulls east out of the Ohio Valley tomorrow and heads toward the Mid Atlantic Thursday. This storm is actually going to act a bit like a winter Nor'easter. Surface barometric pressures are likely to drop below 1000 millibars as the storm heads up toward Long island which is a bit unusual for the summer season. While rain is likely Thursday, the amount of rain that falls in central New York is up for debate. How this meteorological puzzle unfolds is tied to how an outbreak of severe weather over the Ohio Valley progresses. Until these storms develop tomorrow our computer models are going to have a hard time pinpointing the details.
The difference for us between a rainy day Thursday and a VERY rainy day could be razor thin. Here is a look at what a couple runs of the NAM model are forecasting for Thursday. I highlighted where Syracuse is on the maps. It looks like there will be a core of very heavy rain that falls Thursday north of low pressure with totals of 2-4” possible which the most likely near the New York/Pennsylvania border but given the uncertainty we need to keep a close eye on how this storm develops. Just like a winter snowstorm, a shift in the path of the storm could shift the path of this very heavy rain north or south. Given the rain that has fallen not only so far in June but late May as well, heavier rain could cause flooding issues.
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