A run at 70 Wednesday; then colder (11-7-11)
This incredible November weather continues. We hit 66 degrees Monday, and we’ll see a couple more days of 60 degree weather, before things turn cooler for the end of the week.The big driver in the warmth through the mid-week is a strong area of low pressure, which will lift northeastward through the Great Lakes. Below is the surface weather map for Wednesday evening. It shows a 996 mb low over the eastern part of Lake Superior. Of importance to us is that a warm front will be to our north, and a cold front will lie to our west. This places us firmly in the warm sector of the storm, which means we have a legitimate shot at warming to 70 or better Wednesday.Wednesday will be the final day of warmth this go around, as that cold front mentioned above slides to our east Thursday. There will likely be some timing differences as Thursday approaches. Right now, the way I see it, is the cold front will come through here Thursday morning with showers. Thursday’s high temperature will very much be dictated upon the arrival of that cold front.Behind the front, there should be a healthy punch of dry air. We’re toying with how much sun gets out Thursday afternoon. It’s true the air will be drying out, but we’ll also be getting chilly aloft. As that cooler air comes over the Great Lakes, we’ll begin to see lake effect clouds, and rain and snow showers develop, particularly Thursday night and Friday.Friday will be blustery, with highs only in the low 40s. Yikes, that’s quite a change. The good news (at least for folks wanting to get outdoors) is that the damp and unsettled weather will pull out for the weekend. We’ll see increasing sun and a subsequent rise in temperature. I know Jim has been showing the ensemble mean forecasts for the GFS and European computer models. I’ll attach the map from this morning.It really looks like through the middle of the month, ridging is persisting just west of Alaska, with cold air settling into the Rockies. This is pumping up the milder air, and keeping it in place over the eastern US. I would not be surprised if we’re talking 60s again for the first half of NEXT week!
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