Another look at Christmas weather.... (12-18-11)
I’m off today but I’m still peeking at the weather data, in particular focusing on the weather for Christmas. Here is the latest from the Sunday morning run of the GFS model (hot off the presses as they would say). This is valid early evening Christmas Day.
Compared to what we were looking at when I last blogged on Friday, things look a bit more unsettled for Christmas Day. There is still quite a bit of moisture along a stalled front that stretches from Mobile, AL to Norfolk, VA. That’s a bit farther north than the last several runs have shown so we’ll have to see if it’s a one run aberration or a true trend. So taken at face value, this is a cloudier Christmas day for us here in Syracuse with some snow or even rain showers. There air aloft (Between the surface and 5,000 feet) looks to be borderline for rain/snow. One thing seems pretty certain: it will be a wet and potentially stormy day across the Southeast United States.
Again, this is still a work in progress. I have yet to see all of the data this afternoon as we are still waiting for the ensembles as well as the European model to weigh in. This is why we don’t go on the air with a detailed forecast beyond 7 days; there can be so much day to day fluctuation in the models (especially this time of year) which makes those truly long range forecasts unreliable. I'm providing this blogs about Christmas weather to give you some insight into the thought process going into the forecast.
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