Any cold and snow toward mid-month? (12-2-11)
We’re starting to see some cold air spill southward into the lower 48, but for snow lovers, the real good snow and cold appears to be setting its sights on the central and western US. A couple of days ago it looked like we might get into some good cold and snow, but the core of that cold appears as though it will largely end up west of central New York. I believe this is the overall hemispheric pattern dictating our day to day pattern. The cold just doesn’t want to build into the east.Don’t misunderstand me. We will see a trend toward cooler, more typical December weather next week. It’s likely that we’ll get “kissed” by some cold air masses, particularly the middle part of next week, but as far as a prolonged cold/snowy pattern setting up, I just don’t see it...yet. I believe we’re seeing the main winter pattern unfold in front of us. Storms will lift out of the southwestern US and then cut northeastward through the central US toward the Great Lakes. You’re going to hear of places in Texas, Oklahoma and the central US Plains dealing with cold and snow. Not us.
For us, with these storm cutting up to our west, it places us largely on the warm side of the storm, with mainly rain. Things could get messy for us if the low level cold air can penetrate eastward enough, so that we get a dose of snow right on the back edge of the storm as the moisture is pulling away.
Here is the 8-14 day outlook of temperature and precipitation, issued Thursday. This comes out of the Climate Prediction Center branch of the National Weather Service. The warmth over us is tempered some by the above normal temperatures we’ll experience this weekend. You get the gist of the overall pattern. Cold west, warm east.
(click on the images to enlarge)So, we get some cold in here next week, with some snow cover likely. We’re already getting questions on a White Christmas. Statistically, Syracuse has a 70% chance of having an inch or more of snow on the ground Christmas Day. Something will have to drastically change in the week leading up to Christmas. Here’s why.
One week before Christmas, here is a map showing surface temperature anomalies. Red is warmer, blue is colder than normal. Where’s the blue? Again, this is a computer forecast. It’s not gospel. We can use this as a tool, or indication, that chances are we don’t expect any major cold, snowy outbreaks through mid-month.
We’ll certainly be keeping an eye on all of this as we head through the next couple of weeks.
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