April weather rollercoaster...(4-16-13)
I thought I’d start this blog by showing you a graph with rainfall possibilities the rest of this week. This is from a model called the SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) and it runs a couple dozen ensemble simulations. The graph shows the individual ensemble members plus a mean of rainfall amounts (in 3 hour increments). It goes out in time with today on the left and late Friday on the right.
It is a good way to, at a glance, see when our best chances for rainfall will be over the next few days plus gauge any uncertainty in the model. The more colored lines you see, the more uncertainty. This model from earlier today says that after Tuesday evening, our best chance for rain might not come until late in the afternoon Friday. That will happen as the next cold front moves through central New York, bringing more change to our weather.We’ve been talking about the next warm up for central New York at the end of the week but just as dramatic is the cool down that follows for the weekend. Before we get all worried and lament about how this can happen in mid to late April lets take a step back.I went back over the last 30 years in Syracuse and looked at times when our temperature rose to 70 degrees or higher between April 10-20th. First off, that has happened in 21 out of 30 years (70%) which itself is a high percentage. Next, I took those 21 years and looked to see if that warm weather was followed by at least one day with highs in the 40s (or cooler) by the end of April. That comes out to 18 out of 21 years (85%). The bottom line is if you are going to get unusually warm weather at this point in the Spring season, you’d best expect an equally big drop in temperatures in the following days. It may seem like a cruel joke, especially since it is going to happen on the weekend this time around but it is really quite typical and not out of the ordinary. I look at it as the typical ebb and flow of spring in central New York. What would be newsworthy is if we warmed into the 70s in mid April and stayed there.
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