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December 2010 vs. December 2011 (12-8-11)

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Lake Effect Snow over Columbus Circle December 2010 (NewsChannel 9 WSYR)

Reported by: Jim Teske

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Published: 12/08/2011 5:28 pm

Updated: 12/08/2011 5:41 pm

During our evening news Tuesday we briefly looked back at the weather from a year ago when we had the historic five day lake effect snow storm in the Syracuse area. The fact that we’ve had very little snow so far this year just accentuates the amounts of snow dumped on us this week last year. The Syracuse snow total was 46.1” over those five days and we had snow falling at Hancock Field for 97 straight hours. Click here to see a blog that lists some of the other snow totals from that week.

I was looking at some of the weather maps from the lake effect event last year and they are so much different from what we are dealing with today. Here is a comparison of the jet stream winds aloft.

500 mb map December 6th 2010

500 mb map December 6th 2011

Last December we had a extreme blocking pattern that allowed the jet stream (black arrows) and some of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere to plunge south into the eastern United States and stay here. That was key. Our temperatures those first 3 weeks of the month were about 4.5 F below normal. That helped to give us the heavy lake effect this week last December but also another dose the following week. Amazingly, the last week to 10 days of last December saw little in the way of snow. We only really needed ¾ of the month to break the monthly December snowfall. Contrast that with this December and you can see the jet stream winds aloft situated to our west and cold air locked in over the Plains and Rockies.

The one similarity I found between the two years, however, was the Lake Ontario temperature. The reading in early December last year was 45.5 F and we are just a touch above that level as I write this blog. So the take away from this is yes a warmer than normal lake is important for lake effect but until you get a pattern that is more conducive to delivering cold air to the Northeast it is just potential energy sitting there waiting to produce snow. Any sign of a pattern shift that would bring us at least a better chance of lake effect snow? Unfortunately, I don’t have much good news for skiers and snowmobilers.

Here are the GFS (right) and European (left) ensembles for the jet stream centered on Thursday, Friday and Saturday of next week.

I’ve highlighted in yellow where there is ridging going on and while it may not be as sharp or pronounced as I’ve shown this past Fall but still this is a set up for above normal temperatures over the middle and eastern part of the country while the real winter air remains locked up over Canada and even farther north. Again, the biggest reason seems to be we are not getting the blocking in the atmosphere that was so prevalent and extreme the last two winters. To read an excellent explanation, check out Dave Longley’s latest blog.

Now these are means or averages of the jet stream over 3 days so it is quite possible to get a quick shot of chilly air but the bottom line is that through the end of next week we are not going to be in a pattern that favorable for winter weather.

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