December Records at Risk...(12-21-11)
We still have more than a week to go in the month of December but it has certainly been an unusual month by Syracuse standards. Unusual enough to start looking at the possibility of some records being set. We all know that snow has been lacking and even though some snow is possible over the next week plus we certainly have no signs of slipping into true, prolonged winter weather here in central New York. That makes the possibility of being the least snowy December on record a real possibility:Year | December Snowfall |
2011 | 1.7” |
1994 | 5.9” |
1965 | 7.1” |
2001 | 7.3” |
1986 | 8.8” |
1982 | 10.2” |
Year | December Temperature |
2011 | 37.5 F |
2006 | 37.4 F |
2001 | 36.8 F |
1998 | 35.4 F |
1996 | 34.8 F |
1953 | 34.8 F |
Year | 12 Month Mean Temp |
1931 | 51.4 F |
2011 | 50.8 F |
1998 | 50.8 F |
1949 | 50.6 F |
2002 | 50.4 F |
1953 | 50.4 F |
1938 | 50.4 F |
1921 | 50.4 F |
Granted, the European model on the left is a bit troughier over the East than the GFS but the general theme is it is going to be hard to get shots of cold air to last more than a day or so with this type of pattern. We are still waiting for blocking to develop in the atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere that would ultimately deliver cold air from up north into the East for a prolonged period. One way to look for that switch is to follow the Arctic Oscillation (or AO). Here is one forecast for what the AO will do through the end of the month and early in January and it is not good news for skiers and snowmobilers.
Notice that since early December the index has been strongly positive (way above the 0 line) and that trend looks like it will continue into early January. Until that index starts to drop into negative territory we can’t get too excited about our chances for winter weather. Blocking has a hard time developing. That’s not to say we can’t have snow in this kind of pattern but it is tougher than normal to come by.
Copyright 2011 Newport Television LLC All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
