Even More Winter Around the Corner? (12-21-12)

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Reported by: Jim Teske

Email: stormteam@9wsyr.com

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Published: 12/21/2012 8:52 pm

Updated: 12/21/2012 8:57 pm

Winter finally seems like it wants to get cranked up here in central New York. It was a little scary that we hit the official start of winter this morning (the Winter Solstice hit at 6:12 am) and there was snow in the air. Another shot of winter weather will arrive for Saturday with snow and wind and to get the latest on our thinking click here. We will likely have more than an inch of snow Saturday which means this winter will tie the record for the latest into the season we’ve received our first daily 1” snowfall. It also happened for the first time on December 22nd 1998.

I want to spend a little time in this blog focusing a bit about what goes on beyond this weekend. We have a fairly active southern branch of the jet stream setting up and the computer models for the last few days have all hinted at some type of storm system coming from that southern branch then along the East Coast come late Wednesday into Thursday. Here are three different opinions being offered up by the models as of late Friday.

The GFS and Canadian give us just a glancing blow but the European is more of a direct hit, a big snow maker for us. Of course, a lot can happen between now and the middle of next week but you know from reading our blogs that when it comes to long range models, the European is usually given a slight edge compared to the others. Here is a little bit of insight from the National Weather Service forecasters that live and breath long term forecasts:

        FAVORED AREAS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ASSOC WITH
        THIS FAVORED SOLN WOULD BE FROM NEAR THE MID MS VLY INTO PARTS OF
        THE OH VLY/LOWER GRTLKS INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. LIGHTER SNOW
        IS PSBL EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM WEST INTO THE PLAINS. ANY CHANGE
        IN ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK WOULD ADJUST THIS FAVORED AREA
        ACCORDINGLY.

They also mention in the same discussion that the ensembles are actually in better agreement than the operational solutions I have posted up above. The European mean nudges the low a bit farther east and the other two models are pushed farther west. It is certainly not the time to worry about that storm but with with the hustle and bustle of Christmas coming up make sure you keep it in the back of your mind, especially if you have travel plans along the East Coast just after Christmas.

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