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Friday's weather issues...(1-11-12)

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Reported by: Jim Teske

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Published: 1/11 6:01 pm

Updated: 1/11 6:05 pm

We are getting closer to our return to winter weather so I thought I would address some issues as we transition to the colder weather on Friday. We have been concerned for the last day or so about what happens right along the leading edge to the cold air, a cold front, Friday morning. There are signs that there will be a burst of snow as this front comes through central New York but there are differences showing up between successive model runs. Here’s the difference between the NAM model from Tuesday evening (top graphic) versus Wednesday afternoon’s run (bottom):

While last night’s run was indicating several inches of snow, the newer run of the NAM has backed off and has very little snow. At this point, reality will probably end up somewhere in between what these two different model runs are showing. There is too much going for this front to believe we are going to make it through Friday morning unscathed. In particular, we are watching quite a bit of jet stream energy rotating north from the Appalachians then over us. So as a first guess, lets go with a general 1-3” snowfall during the morning Friday. We need to keep a close eye on temperatures as this happens; they will probably drop below freezing.

The other issue for Friday is wind and the time to key in on is Friday evening. Here is a snapshot of the raw data from the NAM model using BUFKIT. As you go up the graphic you are going up in elevation from the ground. Time increases from right to left:

We are figuring the wind will be steady throughout the day with gusts to 30 mph but there will be a 5 or 6 hour window during the evening where winds will gusts past 40 mph. It would not surprise us if there is a wind advisory issued for central New York for Friday and Friday night.

We’ll keep a close eye on these issues as we head closer to Friday and pass along any updates.

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	79°	Wind	Feels Like
		SSE 12 mph	79°

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