Get ready for meteorlogical whiplash next week...(5-24-13)
If nothing else, this Spring in central New York has been full of extremes. We had record snow early in April as Spring was slow to start. By the first week of May we had an unusually slow moving pattern that result in a full week of sunny, warm and dry weather. Early this week it was like the middle of summer with heat, humidity and even severe weather.Now we arrive at today (Friday). Our ‘official’ high was 50 at midnight last night but in reality, the daytime high was only about 45. That’s more than a 40 degree change from just 2 days ago. I only did a quick search back in our records but it seems it this is the coolest late May day since May 28th when it was only 51 degrees. However, get ready for more meteorological whiplash.The pool of coolest air is about to pull out of central New York but true warming is going to take a couple more days to get here. We have to wait for a storm along the New England coast to edge far enough to our east. This same storm is going to bring cool and showery weather to much of New England this weekend. Once that storm departs a warm to hot air mass in the middle of the country will race east. Here is what that change looks like on one of our computer models (the GFS) over the next five days. These two maps focus on temperatures up at 5,000 feet.
Now fast forward to next Wednesday on this forecast from the GFS: One other reason I think there is a real good shot of hitting 90 degrees in the next week is past history. Remember that Mother’s Day snow event from back in 1996? Just one week after that happened we hit 90 degrees for the first and only time that summer season.In addition, last week we saw a similar type air mass move into central New York with a couple days at 86 F in Syracuse while to our south in Elmira, they cracked the 90 degree mark. A little more than a week before that (May 13th) there was snow in higher elevations of central New York.One thing that initially held me back from going 90 at the end of our seven day forecast was the operational European model. It had a cold front very close to us next Friday which raised the question of clouds and even t-storms that might hold our temperatures back. However, I did get a look at the ensemble means from the European model Friday evening and they have that front farther north than the operational European. This mean is an average of a number of European runs using slightly different starting points. When you see that kind of agreement from the means (the front being farther north ) that usually gives us more confidence. In this case, this removes a bit of doubt about the warmth and you’ll notice on our 11 pm Friday broadcast I’m going to up the ante for next Friday to 90 degrees.
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