Getting active this weekend and early next week...(4-17-12)

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Reported by: Jim Teske

Email: stormteam@9wsyr.com

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Published: 4/17/2012 8:58 pm

Updated: 4/17/2012 9:03 pm

In tonight’s blog I’m going to fast forward to our next active period of weather and that begins this weekend. It’s exactly a pretty complex set up. First, you have a cold front that will lay down over us on Friday. That will be responsible for some showers in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Meanwhile, there will be plenty of energy at the jet stream level moving both across the middle of the United States and also across western Canada. Here is a forecast map (from the GFS) at that level valid Saturday evening. I’ve highlighted the two areas we will key on:

Ultimately the forecasts hinges on how or even if these two pieces of energy interact. We know that middle of the US energy is going to spin up a low down at the ground over the Deep South on Saturday and then move north along the East Coast after that. How strong and how close to the coast this low comes hinges on these two pieces of ‘energy’ and whether they merge. So far, the GFS has been the most aggressive and turns this into one big storm along the coast Monday into Tuesday. I’ll show you two maps: one showing the jet stream level features then the other for the same time showing what is happening down at the ground level. Again this is the forecast from the GFS models.

This turns into quite a Nor’easter type storm. The GFS take on this is it is mainly a rain maker but by Tuesday it could be cold enough for snow over higher elevations of central New York. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST BUT STRICTLY WHAT ONE MODEL SAYS. I emphasize this point because 1) we are talking a full week into the future and 2) we are depending on these two upper air features to come together at just the right time. There are still big differences between what the GFS is showing above and what the Canadian and European computer models are showing for the same time. For example, the Canadian model starts the process sooner and the surface low stays farther inland. Meanwhile, the European model keeps the two pieces of energy more separate and you end up with a weaker low moving up the coast.

So at this point, there are still more questions than answers but at the very least it sure does look unsettled for central New York starting this weekend and lasting into early next week. we'll have more on this as we get later into the week.

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