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Getting closer to winter....(1-10-12)

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Reported by: Jim Teske

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Published: 1/10 5:49 pm

Updated: 1/10 5:57 pm

Another day Tuesday with temperatures about 10 degrees above normal in Syracuse but there are still changes in store for central New York as we head toward the weekend in terms of cold and some snow. For higher elevations of the region east of Syracuse there could be a light accumulation Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There even a chance for us all to see an accumulating snow early Friday as low pressure tracks just to our south. It doesn’t look like a big snow but coming in the morning it could have an impact for the commute.

After that, it looks like there will be the potential for some lake effect snow. For much of Friday it looks like the winds will be much too southwesterly for any significant snow anywhere near Syracuse. In fact, we would think that Friday afternoon lake effect should be closer to Watertown.

We’ll keep an on eye Saturday for Syracuse because by that time the winds should flip around to more of a northwesterly direction. Beyond this weekend what can we expect? Here is the latest from the AO index and it’s trending in the same direction as we’ve seen for the last week: downward:

Courtesy: Centers for Climate Prediction

So that is an encouraging sign if you are looking for a more wintry pattern. Are there any other clues? I think this next combination of
the European and GFS model means says a lot:

These maps are an average of what can be expected next Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (January 18-20) On the surface it looks like we are back into the same zonal (west to east) jet stream pattern we’ve seen for much of this milder than normal winter but I think there are some important differences to note. The biggest thing I see here is a jet stream that is farther south then what we saw in December and so far in January. Meanwhile, a piece of the arctic air that has been stuck over Alaska slides into Canada.

The bottom line for us is that we get into a more seasonably cold pattern heading into next week. This coincides with climatologically our coldest time of the year. Our normal high temperature for the next couple of weeks hovers around the freezing mark and given the pattern the models are advertising above I would think we would generally be within a few degrees either side of normal. For an area that has been averaging 6-8 F degrees above normal for the last 5 weeks I would considered that a big change.

A couple things we don’t see with a pattern like this are big storms. You really need to see more ‘buckling’ of the jet stream over United States. That provides the ‘energy’ to spin up the big coastal storms. High pressure over Greenland would be helpful, too but that isn’t showing up on the maps above. Also, while quick shots of well below normal air are possible in this pattern, prolonged bitter cold is not as long as a deep trough is not showing up over us in the eastern United States.

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