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Half a week of winter headed this way...(12-30-11)

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(AP Photo)

Reported by: Jim Teske

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Published: 12/30/2011 9:31 pm

Updated: 12/30/2011 9:45 pm

The weather is going to be decidedly mild for the end of 2011 and at least the first day of 2012. There is, however, some winter weather coming down the pike as the jet stream temporarily changes and a series of cold fronts comes through central New York; one Sunday afternoon and another later Monday. Here is a rare wintry looking jet stream level map for Monday evening:

Courtesy: National Centers for Enviromental Prediction

It’s still too early in the game to start throwing around specific predictions about lake effect for Monday/Tuesday but we are starting to get a feel for the general locations of the snow over those two days. It is looking like Monday the lake effect will be a bigger issue north of Syracuse (i.e. northern Oswego County and points north) and also close to Buffalo off of Lake Erie.

An arctic cold front will drop south through central New York later Monday and that will probably bring the lake effect south toward the Syracuse area. Things get a bit more complicated at this point but it’s looking like we may transition from a single, strong band to more of a spray or multiple bands of snow from Syracuse westward into the Finger Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. If the low level flow becomes too northerly during this time we will lose the help from Georgian Bay and Lake Huron which would limit the lake effect somewhat. Still, the air headed this way is cold (near -20c at 5,000 feet) and the lake itself is about 3F warmer than it would normally be this time of the year so the potential for heavy snow is there.

The bad news for winter lovers is this cold will not stick. After a couple of days, the core of the coldest air will be pulling out with no reinforcements to take it’s place. The signs aren’t good heading into the first full weekend in January. Here is may favorite map showing the ensemble means of the European model (left) versus the GFS (right) for next weekend. I’ve made some notes on the maps to better explain things:

Again, these maps are three day means centered on next weekend (January 7 & 8). The National Weather Service office that does medium range forecasts seems to pick up on this agreement. Their forecast for roughly the same time takes into account the zonal jet stream when forecasting above normal temperatures for much of the lower 48:

Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

And to add insult to injury for skiers and snowmobilers, Dave Longley earlier today passed along a link to even longer range forecasts from the same group. These are 3 month forecasts and the one that is of most interest is the one in the upper left hand corner for the months of January-March:

This shows a continuation of above normal temperatures for all of the country except the Pacific Northwest. I haven’t included it here but I saw a similar product from the European’s and their output also comes to the same conclusion about the next 3 months.

So there it is. We get a quick shot of winter for about half a week then it is back to the pattern we’ve been in so far this winter season with no sign of us getting locked into an extended period of cold and snowy weather. Of course, we’ll keep you posted on any signs of blocking taking place in the higher latitudes that could change things for us..

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