Irene's impact on CNY (8-26-11)
Keep your eye on Irene on our Hurricane Tracker(WSYR-TV, Syracuse)
Lots of questions as to the possible impacts of Irene on our weather over the weekend. We’re still forecast to be right on the western fringe of the rain shield Sunday. That will be the only day we’ll feel an impact. New data is coming in now and this morning’s run of the NAM has shifted a smidge to the west, with Irene hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina Saturday and then New York City Sunday.The rainfall gradient is going to be very sharp across Central New York with the Finger Lakes seeing very little if any rain, and upwards of an inch or more of rain as you move east toward Utica and Albany.
Here is the storm total rainfall ending Monday morning from this morning’s NAM run. Remember, this is a computer forecast and certainly is not considered gospel. It’s meant to be used as guidance. The amounts are in inches. Some of the totals in the pink area are 7-8” of rain. Over Syracuse, it looks like we’re right around a quarter of an inch. The dark green is the 1” line, and that runs from Rome, southward into western Chenango county. Obviously, if the storm track shifts west, everything picture here moves west and vice versa with an eastward shift.
It will be a windy day Sunday. The two maps below are the maps showing the highest probability of tropical storm (>39 mph) and hurricane (>74 mph) force winds.
Tropical Storm Wind probabilities
The green over CNY represents a 5 to 10% chance of sustained winds of 39 mph.
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
I would expect a windy, blustery day Sunday, with north winds of 15-30 mph, with gusts near 40 mph possible. You could probably add 10 mph for locations near Lake Ontario. If that were to happen, wind advisories may be issued by the National Weather Service.
Again, I can’t emphasize how significant the impact of this storm will be from New England, southward into the Carolinas. This is a slow moving storm, and the relentless pounding of waves and the storm surge of water with the hurricane itself will alter the coastal landscape from southern New England all the way down into the Outer Banks.
I’ll try to answer questions on Facebook and we’ll keep you updated through the weekend.
- Dave
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