Lake Ontario Warming Up....(7-11-12)

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Lake Ontario (NewsChannel 9 WSYR)

Reported by: Jim Teske

Email: stormteam@9wsyr.com

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Published: 7/11/2012 12:16 pm

Updated: 7/11/2012 12:38 pm

We are rapidly approaching the middle of July, or the unofficial midpoint of summer. We were about two degrees above normal in June here in Syracuse and so far for the first 10 days in July almost 4 degrees warmer than normal. That has had an impact on the water temperature of Lake Ontario as temperatures are already solidly in the 70s.

On this next graph, you can see the lake temperature has been above normal the entire year (compared to normal 1992-2011) We are now as warm as we would be at the peak time of early to mid August.

We are still short of the warmest lake temperature that I’ve been able to find in recent history. Right now we are at about 22.5 c (73 F) and the highest temperature I’ve found is 25 c (79 F) in August 1995.

Even though it is mid July I’m going to sneak in a couple thoughts out for the upcoming winter. I say that because temperatures are warming in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has even put out an El Nino Watch for the anticipation of an El Nino developing by the end of summer. Here is a model forecast produced by the CPC and the big takeaway is that the El Nino should be with us through the upcoming winter:

If that is the case, it would impact our winter weather but a lot depends on the intensity. This study by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo shows that winter temperatures during a moderate or strong El Nino would end up quite a bit above normal however, a weaker El Nino would mean temperatures closer to normal. The problem is even though we know a El Nino is coming down the pike there is still a lot of uncertainty as to the strength of the upcoming event.

Before you ask, snowfall tends to be all over the place during an El Nino. In just the last 30 years I found some very snowy El Nino winters but also some of our least snowy winters:

Winter	Snowfall
1982-83	66.0”
1986-87	93.5”
1987-88	111.4”
1991-92	166.7”
1994-95	62.2”
1997-98	134.7”
2002-03	153.2”
2004-05	137.6”
2006-07	140.2”
2009-10	106.1”

This is the first, and certainly not last, look at the upcoming winter. We’ll be looking at more trends during the rest of the summer and fall. We’re still 4 months away from the official unveiling of our winter forecast

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