Lake effect now the Greenland Block....(8-16-12)

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Reported by: Jim Teske

Email: stormteam@9wsyr.com

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Published: 8/16/2012 9:11 am

Updated: 8/16/2012 9:14 am

We’ve been talking all week about a return to cooler weather slated for this weekend. We still have temperatures in the mid 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Technically that isn’t too far below our long term average of 80 F but it will be the coolest weather we’ve seen late June. However, what is causing the changes up at the jet stream level to bring the cooler weather? Below is a forecast map from the GFS for this upcoming Sunday morning which shows the pattern over the United States:

While a pattern like this (high pressure up over Greenland and low pressure dropping south out of southeast Canada) can occur any time of year we certainly talk about it more in the winter. It's a pattern like this that typically leads to our coldest and snowiest weather. This time around we are getting our longest period of cool weather in almost 2 months.

Signs are, however, this pattern won’t last much beyond the early part of next week. A map from the same GFS model run for late next week looks much different than the one above:

I’ve purposely picture Thursday as the forecast date of this second graphic because it is the opening day of the State Fair. That suggest temperatures at or a bit warmer than normal. beyond that, there are questions as to how quickly a cold front moves back into the Northeast so the jury is out as to whether there will be rain or not. Stay tuned.

One other note from this morning concerns the drought classification. The new drought numbers came out this morning from the government and it is status quo. This map is similar to last week and the week before that:

Even though the map was released this morning the data used to create this map was only up until 7 am Tuesday morning. That means we aren’t including the widespread rains that fell late Tuesday and Tuesday night with the thunderstorms that rumbled through central New York. That may have had an impact.

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