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March-April Role Reversal....(4-30-12)

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Published: 4/30/2012 10:20 am

Updated: 4/30/2012 10:23 am

We are about to close the books on April and with the cool weather over the weekend means Syracuse will do something this spring that we’ve never done in any spring going all the way back to 1902: March is going to end up warmer than April. Typically our monthly averages steadily and quickly climb from February into May.

Month	Monthly Mean Temp
February	25.9 F
March	34.2 F
April	46.9 F
May	57.6 F

On average you are picking up at or a bit more than 10 degrees in temperature month to month during this time. Although March and April aren’t totally reversed this spring, the fact that March is going to end up warmer than April is significant.

Month	2012 Mean Temp
March 2012	46.5 F (+12.3 F)
April 2012 (Forecasted)	45.9 F (-1.0 F)

This type of role reversal between the spring months this year was quite common over the middle of the country with 140 cities are doing the same thing as Syracuse. For some of the cities (like Chicago and Rockford, IL) what makes this even more impressive is that their Aprils will end up with averages above normal but will fall short of their March number.

There still looks to be good news as we flip the calendar to May. Temperatures should behave more like, well May and at times it will actually feel like summer over the next 6 to 7 days.. The problem is we’ll have to deal with periodic bouts of wet weather. The jet stream winds aloft are going to be just to the north of Syracuse for much of the week and that is going to place a wavy front very close to us here in central New York. On days when the front can get north of us (i.e. Thursday) we have a chance to go well above normal in temperatures. Even when this front is to our south the air won’t be too cool. He is a forecasted map from the GFS for Wednesday evening. I’ve drawn the approximate position of the front with a solid blue line.

Given the warmth and moisture and the front that will be close by we will be watching for showers and even thunderstorms. Although we aren’t forecasting any severe weather we will keep a close eye on Thursday or Friday. If everything comes together we may have some stronger storms around. Just something to keep in the back of your mind for now.

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