Only a Temporary Cooldown....(10-8-12)

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Reported by: Jim Teske

Email: stormteam@9wsyr.com

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Published: 10/08/2012 9:04 pm

Updated: 10/09/2012 9:30 am

The frost advisories that went up across central New York for tonight (Monday night) were certainly a reminder that cooler weather is here. In fact, Sunday and today only made it into the mid 50s here in Syracuse. You have to go all the way back to late April for consecutive days with high temperatures in the 50s. If you’ve been following our 7 day forecast you know there are more days to come later in the week with temperatures below normal. Not to ignore tonight’s frost potential but we think that Friday night/Saturday morning is the real killing frost for much of the region. Maybe Rod Wood will even turn his heat on for the first time this Fall!

The cooler weather is being caused by a dip in the jet stream winds aloft. This forecast map from the GFS ensemble means for later in the week shows things nicely.

The blues and purples represent where the colder air will be while the reds and oranges where the warm weather will be. Perhaps a quick trip to Nome Alaska is in order. Not so fast. Just when you think that we might be getting ready to lock into a late Fall pattern, things change again. We are already starting to warm up by the end of this upcoming weekend and the pattern at the jet stream level by the middle of the next week looks very different.

The black arrows that I drew on each of the maps above represent roughly where the jet stream winds aloft are located. We go quickly from a pattern with a healthy looking trough over the Northeast to a more zonal (or west to east) flow. I don’t have it posted here but the European model is showing a similar pattern. It comes as no surprise to me that the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting temperatures above normal for much of next week across the United States:

This map is a forecast from October 16th through the 22nd. It is not to say that we have 80 degree weather in our future next week (I’d like to see the jet stream ‘bulge’ farther north into Canada for that to happen) but certainly our odds of above normal temperature will increase. As hard as it may be to believe, our normal high temperature dips below 60 next week so a day in the 60s would be considered above normal. This is the time of year where we have to swallow our climatological pride and lower our expectations of what a nice, warm day is in central New York.

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