Our March Toward Fall....(9-13-12)
We are enjoying yet another unseasonably warm day here in Syracuse. Temperatures are soaring more than 10 degrees above normal today. You are probably starting to think that this can’t last forever and you would be right. In fact, there are signs we are about to slip into more typical early Fall weather.A cold front is forecasted to move through central New York later tomorrow and it will bring us some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. That will knock our temperatures down for the weekend. That temperature change in itself is not that noteworthy. The temperatures we have for the weekend will be very similar to what we had this past Sunday/Monday. A more substantial change will come midweek next week. Another cold front will come through in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and that will herald a more prolonged period of cool weather. Up at the jet stream level a trough of low pressure will set up over the East and will remain through the rest of next week. We have a fairly high level of confidence in this happening even though it goes out beyond our normal 7 day forecast. The reason for this is the agreement from our two main long range models: the GFS and European. Here is a look at the mean jet stream flow for 6 to 10 days out in time.
This sends a strong signal that temperatures will average below normal mid next week into the weekend. We may not see 60s every day from Wednesday into the weekend but 60s but they should become become more commonplace. There are even some hints that this troughy pattern could last longer than through next weekend although the confidence level is not as high.So we are starting what I like to call the ‘step down’ phase of the autumn season. Each wave of cooler weather is followed warm ups that aren’t as impressive. It is just tougher for the atmosphere to recover. The days are shorter and the sun’s angle is becoming lower and lower. You can really notice the longer shadows during the middle of a sunny day now. After this weekend’s cooler weather we warm early next week but only back into the 70s, not the 80s. Sometime in the next month a stretch of 70 degree weather will give way to 50s and the following warm up will only get us into the 60s. It’s an inevitable march toward fall.That’s not to say that today (Thursday) is the last nice day of the year. It’s just that after 80 degree weather on 78 of the last 98 days we are about to march into the change of seasons.
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