Our Quiet Pattern...(11-14-12)
Sunshine returned to central New York earlier today as the weather pattern over the Northeast gets ready to quiet down. To show you just how amazing our weather is likely to be over the next week, I’m going to include a couple of forecast model products. The first is an accumulated rainfall map from the GFS. This shows the total rainfall expected from now through next Wednesday.
I’ve circled central New York to show the area where the model thinks no precipitation will fall. This is not for just the next couple of days it is for the NEXT 7 DAYS! Again, this is just a forecast from the model. There is still the slight chance some coastal moisture could clip us early next week but still even a forecast of dry weather for seven straight days in November is remarkable. Typically, the jet stream is shifting south through the United States and is strengthening this time of year. That keeps the pace of systems tracking across the country fairly consistent. That makes it hard for us to go more than a couple of days with dry weather. Instead, the jet stream is up in Canada. Not just the southern part of Canada but way up into the Northwest territories and Hudson’s Bay. Not only does this northern shift in the jet keep any significant weather systems away from us here in central New York, it also keeps are wind at a minimum. We’ve talked a lot over the last couple of day about November being the cloudiest month of the year but it is also the month when the winds tend to ramp up for the winter seasonThis next graphic shows the forecast winds from the GFS going out in time from right to left. The height of the atmosphere goes from bottom to top.
In this graphic (forecast from the GFS) I want you to focus on what is going on near the bottom of the graph, or in this case NOT going on. For many days, the wind in the lower 5,000 feet of the atmosphere is forecasted to be 10 mph or less. This makes for ideal conditions again this weekend as you finish up those outdoor chores as we get closer to the start of winter.
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