Our Weather Turns Quiet After Monday Night...(11-12-12)
In the very short term we have quite a bit of change in store for central New York. In the longer term, our weather pattern will be unusually stable and quiet.The most active weather over the next week will occur during a short window of time this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through. It may or may not thunder with the rain moving through but the winds will be rather gusty with the initial push of rain. If you are out later this evening it won’t be pleasant.While there is no 70 degree weather in our future after Monday, there are strong signs that our weather will be remarkably quiet over the next 7 days, especially given we are in the middle of November.
Now, just because the jet stream is so far north doesn’t mean our temperatures are going to be way above normal like we experienced this Sunday/Monday. Down at the ground we will have an area of high pressure that will build in just to the north of central New York over eastern Canada. That is going to make it hard for our winds to turn into the south and import any very warm over the next week. This time of year, with the sun so low on the horizon, you really need to bring in milder air on a southerly wind since you can’t ‘manufacture’ it in place.
Still, the alternative is not all that bad for us. Starting Wednesday and lasting into the weekend our temperatures won’t be that far from normal for the middle of November (upper 40s) and the real kicker is an extended period of generally sunny weather, something that can be hard to come by this time of year. See the first 7 days of this November for Exhibit A of how November weather can behave around here.On the ensemble map above, I’ve highlighted what could be a potential ‘fly-in-the-ointment,” potentially throwing a monkey wrench into what we currently think is going to be a sunny, dry and seasonable weekend. When you have have the jet stream aloft so far north, that usually leads to low pressure trying to form over the Southeast United States or just off the Southeast coast. Both the GFS and European models are hinting at this by the end of the weekend or early next week. That means some type of storm off the East coast (weaker than last week’s Nor’easter and much weaker than Sandy) Exactly how high pressure evolves to our north this weekend will dictate how quickly winds turn into the southeast and moisture returns to central New York. Stay tuned.
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