Putting it in perspective...(1-24-13)
The weather into the weekend is certainly cold but is it an epic or historic cold shot? Probably not. I like to put current weather into perspective and in this case I found a couple of stretches, both within the last decade, that are comparable or even colder than what we are in the middle currently.One I found was in February 2007. That was the month that was highlighted by the mega-lake effect event over Oswego County that we dubbed Winter in a Week. There were seven days in Syracuse during the first half of the month where our high temperatures were only in the teens. There were only 3 days that dropped below zero. The month as a whole ended up 6 degrees below normal.If you go back a few more years to January 2005 you find a stretch likely more brutal than what we are currently in. Look at those low temperatures!.| Date | High | Low |
| January 17 | 19 | 7 |
| January 18 | 7 | -6 |
| January 19 | 25 | 0 |
| January 20 | 27 | -1 |
| January 21 | 0 | -12 |
| January 22 | 9 | -14 |
| January 23 | 6 | -10 |
| January 24 | 21 | -9 |
| January 25 | 23 | 11 |
| January 26 | 20 | 1 |
| January 27 | 8 | -8 |
| January 28 | 17 | -18 |
So you can probably peg the weather we’re locked into now as the coldest we’ve seen in about 3 years. It just seems longer since the last couple of winters haven’t been all that cold in central New York.Another sign that it isn’t a historic cold snap is that our temperatures probably won’t be breaking any record lows through the end of the month. Here is a list of records for the last 10 days of January.| Date | Record | Year |
| January 21 | -12 | 2005 |
| January 22 | -19 | 1984 |
| January 23 | -18 | 1976 |
| January 24 | -14 | 1907 |
| January 25 | -15 | 2004 |
| January 26 | -26 | 1966 |
| January 27 | -16 | 1994 |
| January 28 | -18 | 2005 |
| January 29 | -18 | 2005 |
| January 30 | -16 | 1948 |
| January 31 | -19 | 1920 |
It should come as no surprise that at this point, the typically coldest part of the year, you have to get pretty cold to break any record lows.There is definitely a break in our weather early next week as temperatures rise into the 40s but don’t get too used to it. There is more cold air building in the higher latitudes and it would come into the Northeast for starting Super Bowl weekend. I don’t know whether it will come in all at once or whether it comes at us in a couple of pieces but the bottom line is after a brief thaw it will get cold again to start February. Here is a look at a pretty chilly European/GFS ensemble mean for late next week and early in the weekend.
That only carries us through the first few days of February but there are signs the cold will be with us beyond that point. Here is the 8 to 14 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center that goes through the first week of February.
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