Small Hail possible Wednesday...(5-8-12)
The models were pretty much spot on with the rain for today. Most areas picked up an inch of rain between last night and today. A few spots were even close to 2 inches. The system causing this rain is now heading to our east this evening. A cold front will move off the East Coast by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon a whole separate mechanism will cause a scattering of showers and thundershowers over central New York.We are watching a pocket of chilly air aloft tracking into the western Great Lakes this evening Here is a map of the temperatures up around 18,000 feet. I’ve highlighted the area of coolest air.
This cool air aloft is key for a number of reasons. First, it helps sustain the updrafts to cause showers and even thundershowers to develop (especially when the lower atmosphere can warm up). Secondly, the cooler air aloft can support the formation of hail. We checked out some storm reports this afternoon over Wisconsin and there were many reports of hail. The hail wasn’t large, about the size of peas. Given this air is moving east and will be close to us tomorrow afternoon scattered showers and storms seem likely. The chances of the storms being severe are low but the chances of small hail (like over the Great Lakes today) are good. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center forecast for severe storms for Tuesday:
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