Some more thoughts on Memorial Day Weekend (5-17-12)

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Reported by: Jim Teske

Email: stormteam@9wsyr.com

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Published: 5/17/2012 5:40 pm

Updated: 5/17/2012 5:44 pm

In my blog yesterday I spent a lot of time talking about the uncertainty from the GFS computer model about the Memorial Day’s forecast. Today, while things are still up in the air for Memorial Day, we are starting to see some trends for the start of the weekend, particularly as far as the temperatures are concerned. The European model from today looks into the first ⅔ of the holiday weekend and things certainly point toward above normal temperatures. Here is a comparison of the GFS and European ensemble means up at the jet stream level for the days of Friday-Saturday-Sunday of next week
:

If you look at the extent of the red on those maps you can infer that the European model is suggesting the warmest air of the two models. In fact, I was looking at the some of the details from the European model and when I looked at temperatures at 5,000 feet I saw temperatures as warm or even warmer than what the models think will be over us this weekend.

Is there any more support of this warmer weather from the GFS model? I don’t have the same maps I have for the European above but I do have this map that looks at areas of above and below normal temperatures at 5,000 feet:

What does this all mean? I would say that the odds of 80 degree (perhaps even 90 degree) weather are good early next weekend (May 26/27th). It’s much too early to try to pinpoint our chances for rain but it certainly looks like a summer-like warmth for us.

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