Summery, with stronger thunderstorms possible this afternoon (9-13-11)
(WSYR-TV, Syracuse) There certainly is a lot on the weather plate this morning. The big story continues to be the big chill arriving for the tail end of the week. I’ll have more on that tomorrow, but the main weather issue today is the potential for severe weather.Southwest winds ahead of a cold front will juice up our atmosphere, with temperatures warming into the 80s, and dewpoints climbing into the 60s. This will make things unstable enough for thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Increasing winds aloft over us will set the stage for strong damaging winds to occur with any storms that get going. Current indications are that the storms will start to fire after 2 pm. Below is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for severe weather today. We are highlighted for possible severe weather.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
WRN/NRN NY AND NRN VT...
...WRN/NRN NY TO NRN VT/NH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WILL
ACCELERATE NEWD NEAR AND N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS
NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF LOW-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
AND AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DURING THE DAY AND ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD/SEWD INTO NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF ORGANIZED
LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
The threat of stronger storms will be with us into the evening, with things quieting down tonight. This will set us up for a beautiful day Wednesday.
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