Taking another look at Lake Ontario temperatures... (1-19-12)
When it comes to winter weather in Syracuse and most of central New York, Lake Ontario typically plays the biggest role. From temperatures, to sunshine and of course snow the lake has a huge impact. During a winter like this when it has been so warm with a lack of snow the lake becomes the 800 lb gorilla in the room, so to speak.Sure there has been a few lake effect events so far this winter such as the one in Mid November, another in early December then in the latter part of the month and then finally just after the start of the new year but no real big event where 3 or 4 feet falls in a couple of days.How is the lake doing now? Here are a couple of charts that will highlight how the temperature is compared to normal and also the last several years:
Courtesy: Great Lakes Surface Enviromental AnalysisThe significance of 2007 is that was the year (early February) we had the “Winter in a Week” mega-lake effect event. However, before you get tto excited, I have to caution that it is not as simple as because we have Data A (a warmer lake) we will get Result B (a major lake effect event). We still need favorable winds for an extended period of time and of course cold enough air aloft.To get a rough gauge as to our potential for lake effect over the next week we look closely at the temperature difference between the lake and 5,000 feet. If that difference is at least 13 c then we can create the updrafts to cause lake effect clouds and storms. The bigger the difference the more productive the lake effect. Back in February 2007 that difference was closer to 20c for full week.For the next week the chances for lake effect (after Friday morning) look slim. With a lake temperature right now at +4c, we need temperatures at 5,000 feet to drop to at least to -9c. Here are the model forecast temperatures at that 5,000 feet level for the next week.Day | GFS Forecast | European Forecast |
Friday AM | -18c | -18.5c |
Saturday AM | -10c | -10.5c |
Sunday AM | -2.5c | -4.5c |
Monday AM | +9c | +4c |
Tuesday AM | -7c | -5c |
Wednesday AM | -3c | -5c |
Thursday AM | -4.5c | -8c |
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