The Latest on Issac... (8-22-12)

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Reported by: Jim Teske

Email: stormteam@9wsyr.com

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Published: 8/22/2012 5:37 pm

Updated: 8/22/2012 5:41 pm

As I mentioned in a blog last week, the tropics are starting to ramp up. Issac formed a couple of days and what may turn out to be Joyce is lurking farther east in the tropical Atlantic. However, it is Issac that will get the lion’s share of the media coverage over the next few days. There is going to be plenty of speculation on where it goes next week. The important thing to keep in mind is that the error in any forecast track from the National Hurricane Center 5 days out is more than 200 miles! That’s the equivalent of a trip from Utica to Buffalo. Basically it means we don’t know where it will be by next Monday and beyond. I thought I would share with you where some of our computer models say Issac will be by Tuesday morning just to show you why.

The GFS seems to be the model of choice so far. By Tuesday morning it is just off the west coast of Florida:

Next up is the Canadian model. Last night’s run of the model actually had Issac hugging the East Coast but now the storm is tracking farther west:

The final look comes from the European and has the farthest west track:

Three models, 3 very different solutions for the long term. So take any forecast of where Issac may be after this weekend with a large grain of salt.

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