(WSYR-TV, Syracuse) Beautiful weather has taken hold over our area for the middle of the week. Overall, the good weather will hold with us into the weekend. There is one potential kink in an otherwise great forecast, that I'm keeping an eye on.
Remember the cold front that came through here Monday? Well it's slowing down just off the east coast. It's become a stationary front as it sets up southwestward toward Florida. That can be bad, because all it takes is an area of disturbed weather to move over that stalled front...and voila...we have an area of low pressure. We already have moisture pooling along that frontal boundary off the SE US coast. We have an approaching system from the southwest, which will interact with the front and cause low pressure to form. That disturbance can actually be tied to the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, which dissipated over the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
The computer models we use to write the forecast are already hinting that we're going to get an area of low pressure to form off the mid Atlantic coast over the next day or so. That they agree on. What they don't agree on is how strong will the low be? How far north will it move? We have some models that are telling me...don't worry about it. We'll stay dry and sunny. One fairly reliable forecast model is saying upwards of an inch of rain could fall here Friday. Truth be told, I honestly don't know which is right. The high pressure system parked to our northeast is pretty strong, and is forecast to remain essentially anchored over the Northeastern US through the weekend. The million dollar question is how much of the moisture with that coastal low can move into the dry air over us.
Our philosophy so far is to keep us dry and not jump on any one model solution. The grand setup would favor a mainly dry forecast. The European Computer model does have a good track record with these things and given the fact that it is emphatic with rain Friday, we do have a mostly cloudy day in the forecast. At this point, we're keeping it dry with the overwhelming majority of the forecast guidance indicating a dry period.
We'll give it another day, then as we get into Wednesday, we may need to start making some tough decisions. If you ask me now, if there is going to be a day with precipitation on CNY, it would most likely end up being Friday.
How's this from honesty? I just wanted to be up front with you in terms of the forecast, and where changes could occur over the next couple of days. Feel free to comment at facebook.com/DaveLongleyNC9 or on twitter at @DaveLongleyNC9