Thursday's Severe Threat....(7-25-12)
The weather is about to get more active in central New York Wednesday night and Thursday as we will have to deal with a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.The first round of rain and storms comes later tonight and our confidence is increasing for this as our computer models have been consistently showing this over the last couple of days. Plus, we see action on the radar upwind of us over the Great Lakes moving southeast. This is all along a warm front as it makes an aggressive push from the Midwest into the East. While some showers may show up close to midnight, the best chance for meaningful, heavy rain would late tonight and early tomorrow. Here is a map directly from the NAM computer model showing how much rain could fall by midday Thursday.The rain is the biggest threat overnight but we can’t rule out a few gusty storms as well. This rain and thunder moves out of central New York toward mid morning tomorrow but we run the risk of more thunderstorms in the afternoon and those storms could pack a punch.There are certainly many ingredients that will be in place for severe weather tomorrow across central New York. First, we will have plenty of moisture as dew points creep toward 70 degrees or better. However, the biggest concern are strong winds aloft. These winds are more typical of a spring set up then one in late July. The one wild card, and it is a big wild card, is the amount of heating we get tomorrow and the rain and thunder that comes in here late Wednesday night could play a big role. This rain is going to cool the lower atmosphere which is going to delay the arrival of the warm front and the really hot air. If that warm front gets hung up over us then we have a harder time breaking into sunshine and we are slow to warm. Without that warming (and temperatures, say close to 90) it gets tougher for severe weather here. It’s an easier call for severe weather farther south say around Binghamton, Scranton or Williamsport well south of the warm front and heating will be unimpeded.This is not to say that we won’t get any severe weather here in Syracuse tomorrow afternoon. It is just there are questions that have to be answered before we can say with certainty that storms with damaging wind and hail roll on through. A lot of these questions won’t be answered until that first round of storms moves through tomorrow morning and we see exactly what it does to our atmosphere. That means you should keep a close eye to any updates here on 9wsyr.com, our Facebook page and on NewsChannel 9
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