Tropical moisture means some mid-week rain (10-17-11)
We’ll enjoy a quiet Tuesday, with some sun, and temperatures in the 60s. Enjoy that dry weather, as our chances for showers will increase starting Wednesday.It seems like a long ways off, but moisture gathering up across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is streaming northward into Florida this evening. That’s all well and good, but what exactly is going to get that moisture moving northward toward us? Answer: the jet stream.Here’s a satellite image of that moisture over Florida:
An impulse in the jet stream moving across the Rockies (it’s bringing them some snow) will carve out another big trough in the jet stream over the eastern US. That’s the mechanism which will draw the moisture northward toward us. Here’s a look at the 500mb chart for Wednesday morning, 
You can’t help but notice the large trough carved out over the Mississippi Valley. This will pick up the tropical moisture, and send it northward toward CNY.I’ve included the surface weather map for Wednesday, which shows where the actual surface features will be located and where the rain will be.
We’ll likely see an area of rain move north over us during the day Wednesday as low pressure moves north up the coast. Between Wednesday and Thursday, a new, stronger area of low pressure will develop over the Ohio Valley. By Thursday morning, this storm will be over the Great Lakes, and should be quite strong. For us, it may mean no more than a few showers Thursday, and a good south-southeast breeze.
Eventually, that storm will slide to our northeast, giving us some wind, showers and cooler temperatures Friday. Assuming things move along as indicated now, we should have a pretty decent weekend around here. Keep you fingers crossed!
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