It certainly look like we’ve got some wet weather in the short term here across CNY. Low pressure is tracking up across the west end of Lake Ontario and that is going to bring plenty of moisture into the Northeast. Click here to read a more up to date weather discussion for the short term. I will include this map of total rainfall from this morning’s GFS model run. It is a cumulative total from this evening through Tuesday evening:
We’ve had a rainfall deficit of almost an inch and a half since the beginning of March so an inch or an inch and a half of rain probably won’t cause any flooding problems. Even if we get some very heavy rain in a short period of time (about 1 hour) from a thunderstorm Tuesday I don’t think it would be enough for to cause flash flooding. We would need at least 1.50” in an hour for that to happen.The rain is going to be welcomed to our east where the dry weather/drought situation is greater. Here is the latest drought map for the Northeast:
Remember, last spring was very wet throughout the Northeast. Here in Syracuse the first 4 months of 2011 were more than 50% wetter than this year so far. To give you more of an idea of how dry it is the farther east you go check out these rainfall deficits for this year:
All of the Northeast will get rain over the next day or so but it looks like the heaviest rain will bypass the driest areas.
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