Welcome to November (Not!)...(11-1-12)
The calendar flipped to November today and boy did the weather scream November. Plenty of clouds, rain and temperatures in the 40s. If it is a normal November here in Syracuse we are going to have many more carbon copies of today. That’s what makes November my least favorite month (sorry Thanksgiving). November is tied with December for the cloudiest month with, on average, 26% of possible sunshine. At least by December it is cold enough for snow and I can think about grabbing my skis or snowshoes.For better or worse, we have the remains of Sandy to thank for our current great grey funk. Although the center of circulation is well up into Canada now, the cloud shield around the storm was huge and still extends all the way into Virginia.
Sandy is continuing to move northeast away from us so you would think that means we are due form some improvement (i.e. some sun). The complicating factor for us is Lake Ontario. The wind is starting to turn around into the west and over the next they shift into the northwest. The air coming in on those northwest winds will be cool enough for lake effect clouds and precipitation to linger a while longer.Here’s what we are looking at that makes us so pessimistic into Sunday. This is a snapshot from a program called BUFKIT. It is just a program that takes computer model data for a single point (in this case Syracuse) and puts it in an easy to digest format.
Chronologically, the days go from today on the right to Sunday on the left with height in the atmosphere going up from the bottom. The colors represents relative humidity with the greens starting at 70% then reaching 95% or greater. When you get to 95% the model is telling you that clouds are pretty much guaranteed. This data is from the NAM and it has this deep moisture right up until sunset. However, the NAM has a tendency to overdo low level moisture so we are still going to hold out for some late day sun on Sunday. We are encouraged by the GFS model (not shown here) which does try to clear us out after the morning.So November is starting out right on cue. If we have to wait for Sunday for any re-appearance of the sun it will be more than a week straight of cloudy weather in Syracuse. Did I mention a hate November?
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