When does the cold depart??? (4-24-12)

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Cherry Tree covered with late April snow

Reported by: Jim Teske

Email: stormteam@9wsyr.com

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Published: 4/24/2012 4:53 pm

Updated: 4/24/2012 5:05 pm

Our late season Nor’easter is finally winding down but not after a good dose of winter weather over parts of New York and Pennsylvania. There was a swath of 4-7” snow from the southern Finger Lakes northeast into southern Onondaga and Madison counties Sunday night and early Monday. Out in western New York the totals were more impressive:

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
  ALFRED                            10.2
  WHITESVILLE                     6.1
  WELLSVILLE                      1.5

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
  CATTARAUGUS               12.8
  WEST VALLEY                  9.0
  FRANKLINVILLE                9.0
  1 NE OLEAN                      5.5
  PERRYSBURG                 5.5

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
  SINCLAIRVILLE                15.0
  5 SE FREWSBURG        13.0
  4 SSE FREWSBURG        5.5
  JAMESTOWN                    2.2

...ERIE COUNTY...
  COLDEN                        12.6
  2 NE BOSTON               10.0
  WALES                            7.5
  2 SE GLENWOOD          6.6
  2 S AKRON                     3.0
  BUFFALO                       1.1
  3 E WILLIAMSVILLE       1.1

...GENESEE COUNTY...
  2 NE STAFFORD          4.4
  PAVILION                      3.4

...LEWIS COUNTY...
  CONSTABLEVILLE         1.4
  LOWVILLE                      1.0

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
  1 ENE DANSVILLE          8.9
  4 WSW DANSVILLE        7.0
  LIVONIA                            6.0

...MONROE COUNTY...
  ROCHESTER INTL ARPT    2.8

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
  NIAGARA FALLS AIRPORT   1.0

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
  5 ESE OSWEGO           1.2

...WAYNE COUNTY...
  2 SW WALWORTH          3.8

...WYOMING COUNTY...
  WARSAW                    12.0
  1 W WARSAW            11.0
  3 N SILVER SPRINGS     6.0

By the way, Rochester picked up about 2 ½” of snow and are now just about 60” for the season which puts them about 10” ahead of Syracuse and gives them a seemingly insurmountable lead in the race for the Golden Snowball Award.

One last thing about the Nor’easter. In last week’s blogs I talked a lot about two ‘pieces’ of jet stream energy coming together to form the storm.  The National Weather Service earlier today posted this great multi day satellite loop. You can clearly see one piece dropping across the Great Lakes and another coming up the East Coast merging over the mid Atlantic. It is a textbook example of what we call in meteorology ‘cyclongenesis.’

The million dollar question, of course, is when does this pattern start to break. The good news is we see changes to more normal weather on the horizon. The bad news is that horizon is beyond the upcoming weekend. There are signs that things will change toward the middle of next week (the first few days of May). Here is what we are seeing. First I’m going to show you a couple of maps from the GFS ensemble means. I’m focusing in on the temperatures at the 5,000 foot level. This time of year, if those temperatures are above normal it will follow that down at the ground will be warm as well. I’m going to show you two different maps, one from this evening and another forecast for next Wednesday and you will see the big difference:

Ok, so that’s the GFS model but is there any support from the European model. Here is a map that is up at the jet stream level but still gives us some important clues about surface temperatures in the 8 to 10 day range (mid next week)

When you see a map like this without any reds or blues over us you can assume that are temperatures are probably going to be close to normal. So things are looking up as long as we can make it through this weekend.

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