Where does the Summer of '12 stand? (8-2-12)
As I mentioned in my last blog, this past July was the 3rd warmest July on record for Syracuse. On top of a warmer than normal June that begs the question: Are we on pace to have one of the warmest summers on record. Here is a chart that shows where the warmest summers on record were by the end of July:| Year | June/July
Mean | Ultimate Summer Rank |
| 1949 | 74.0 F | 2 |
| 2005 | 73.7 F | 1 |
| 1933 | 73.0 F | 6 |
| 2012 | 72.5 F | ?? |
| 1955 | 72.5 F | 3 |
| 2011 | 72.4 F | 4 |
| 1995 | 71.5 F | 10 |
| 1973 | 71.2 F | 11 |
| 1938 | 71.0 F | 5 |
| 1959 | 70.6 F | 8 |
Next I’m going to show you a chart I used last year to compare some of the more recent hot summers.
| Year | Mean | 90s+ | 80s+ | 88/89 | Humid | <70 | Rain |
| 2010 | 71.1 F | 11 | 54 | 8 | 32 | 4 | 37 |
| 2005 | 73.7 F | 20 | 71 | 15 | 29 | 2 | 30 |
| 2002 | 71.5 F | 26 | 61 | 6 | 31 | 9 | 24 |
| 1999 | 71.2 F | 20 | 62 | 14 | 19 | 4 | 29 |
| 1995 | 71.6 F | 16 | 70 | 10 | N/A | 2 | 28 |
| 1988 | 70.0 F | 25 | 57 | 4 | N/A | 11 | 32 |
| 2011 | 72.2 F | 13 | 67 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 31 |
| 2012* | 72.5 F | 19 | 45 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 21 |
90s+ = Days at least 90 for a high temperature80s+ = Days at least 80 for a high temperature88/99 = Days with a high of 88 or 89 (near misses of 90 F)Humid = Days where the dew point reached or exceeded 70 F< 70 = Days where the high temperature failed to reach 70 FRain = Days with at least .01” of rain* 2012 numbers through July 31stI’ll re-post this chart after August 31st so we can get a true comparison of hot summers but there are a few things that stand out to me. First, in spite of the heat there hasn’t been as many humid days as some other summers. We would have to double the number of days with high dew points (70 F or better) this month to be on par with 2002, 2005 or 2010. That will be hard to match. I think the reason why is quite simple -- the Midwest Drought. Our air has come from there on many occasions and it has been hot but bone dry.Second, I’m still amazed at the warmth in the Summer of 2005. When you look at the the number of days above 80 F and then the number of days at 88 F or above it is no wonder it was the hottest summer on record in Syracuse. Almost 80% of the days that summer were 80 F or above compared to the normal of about 46%! While we are on par with the number of 90 degree days this summer we are still 10 days behind the number of ‘near misses’ compared to 2005. The bottom line is for this summer to challenge for the hottest summer of all-time we have to keep up this torrid pace through much of August. If we can get about a third of the days to reach 88 F or higher and not have any days in the 60s F we might have a shot. We shall see.
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