Winter Gets a Jump Start? (12-12-12)
In yesterday’s blog, I talked about us slipping into more of a winter-like pattern late next week or weekend. From what we’ve seen from our computer models this afternoon, that process may get a jump start a few days earlier.Here is a look at what the GFS and European computer model forecast for next week.
Even though both the GFS and European models have a storm along the coast, there are differences which makes for an uncertain forecast. You’ll notice the models can’t quite agree on the day the storm moves up the coast; the GFS is about a day faster. Just yesterday the models we’re taking this same system harmlessly out to sea. We’ll wait and see what the computer models say about this system over the next few days but I’m guessing we’ll see the models change at least a bit more from what we are seeing today. For now, we have a chance of rain or wet snow in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as the storm moves up the coast. Even though this storm would arrive close to the winter solstice, it may end up behaving more like an early or late season storm which makes the forecast that much more uncertain. There is little in the way of cold air preceding next week’s potential storm which means for part of this storm we might be dealing with a mix of precipitation and not just plain snow. Elevation may play a key role in any potential storm next week as over higher elevations the temperatures would be cooler and potentially tip the scales in a borderline rain/snow situation.The bottom line, as is usually the case this far out in time, there are still more questions than answers. It is WAY too early to talk any accumulation but it still bears watching as winter may finally arrive next week. No matter what unfolds with this potential system it should move up into the Canadian Maritimes and bring down from Canada the colder air we talked about in yesterday’s blog.
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