Winter finally getting ready to start? (1-4-11)
I was excited when I got up this morning to see that we are now over a foot of snow for the winter season in Syracuse and we are ahead of all the Upstate New York cities (Buffalo, Rochester, Binghamton and Albany) for the most snow this season. You can check out this link to keep track of how we are doing plus a look at some of the other selected cities and towns in central New York.We know some (but not all) of you are wondering (if not pleading!) on when we get some true long-lasting winter weather around here. We are keeping a close eye on the long range tools at our disposal and up until now things haven’t been too promising. For much of the last month the jet stream flow over us has been zonal which keeps shots of arctic over us to a minimum. But now things MAY be about to change.Here is the first good sign for winter lovers. It comes from the ensembles of the GFS and European models at means for the the 3 days at the end of next week.
I think the best sign on these maps is the appearance of the trough in the East on both models. (consensus is a good thing when looking that far out in time). Of course, the devil is in the details and there are some differences in the details. While both models point to colder weather for us, the map on the left, the European model, is a colder solution for us. It has to do with the position of the ridge in the western United States. On the European, the ridge is farther east (or more inland over the West) than the GFS which looking downstream places the trough (and the core of coldest air) closer to us in central New York.The next question is can this trough hold? As I mentioned earlier in the blog, a zonal jet stream flow has dominated our weather recently but I looked at the GFS ensembles beyond the end of next week and sure enough the trough is still there into the middle of the following week.
We don’t get ensemble data for the European that far out so we don’t have anything to compare the GFS to but the signs certainly point to a cold stretch of weather. When does this change take place? It sure looks like the system that is going to ‘flip the switch’ so to speak is low pressure that will move up the Appalachians into Canada during the Thursday to Friday time frame. It’s early on, but since there will be little in the way of cold air preceding the low and low pressure itself will move close, if not over, central New York, I would say this is mainly a rain maker to start then we turn colder with lake effect. So, to sum up, it sure looks like winter is about a week away from getting a kick start as the pattern gets ready to go through a change. I guess it is time to get my cross country skis ready!
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