Winter's Midpoint.....(1-16-12)
At least by the calendar I like to think of January 15th as the mid point of our winter. Technically, the meteorological winter months are December, January and February so we are in the middle of those 3 months. But even if you modify it and say our winter weather tends to start in November and linger into March then you can still use January 15th as that mid point. There is also some support to this from the long term Syracuse ‘averages.’ We are in the midst of a 16 day stretch where the average daytime high is 31 F. The middle of that stretch is Tuesday and from then on into the summer our ‘average’ highs will slowly but steadily increase.So, where do we stand when it comes to winter?Obviously this is one of the slowest starts to winter since records have been kept at the airport. As of this morning we stood at 25.0” even for the winter and the only reason we are that high is the snow we got Friday and Saturday which doubled our seasonal total. We are at the fourth least snowfall through the middle of January with only the winters of 2001-02 and 1994-95 being lower. Winters | Snow Thru Jan. 15 | Seasonal Snowfall |
1994-95 | 17.1” | 62.2” |
2001-02 | 17.2” | 59.4” |
1982-83 | 23.7” | 66.0” |
2011-12 | 25.0” | ???? |
Winter | December-February Temp |
2001-02 | 34.0 F |
2011-12 (so far) | 33.4 F |
1952-53 | 30.6 F |
1997-98 | 30.4 F |
This is the ‘average’ of the computer model’s jet stream forecast for the days of January 23,24 and 25th and if you are a winter sports enthusiast maps like these are rather depressing. These maps are far from anything corresponding to typical mid winter weather. And while the details get fuzzier or more uncertain beyond the middle of next week there are certainly at least hints that the milder weather could last through the end of January. That’s not to say that starting this weekend there won’t be any winter weather through the end of this month it’s just that most of the systems impacting us will track northeast through the Great Lakes starting us off on the mild side with mainly rain followed by a change to some snow on the backside. Even the lake effect potential behind any of these systems would be minimal. There are just no signs the air masses next week would be on par with what we had over us this past weekend or even similar to what will be over us Wednesday and again Friday this week.
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