High pressure remains centered near Lake Superior. Farther south and west, a frontal boundary is draped from off the Mid-Atlantic coast west through the Ohio Valley and all the way through the Upper Plains and Rocky Mountain States. This frontal boundary separates warm and humid air south of the front from cooler and drier air to its north. Additionally, it is the focal point for clouds along with showers and thunderstorms.
Over the next 24 hours, the high pressure system to our northwest if forecast to slide southeast to near Boston by early tomorrow. In doing so, Central New York will enjoy a nice Friday and as high clouds streak east and dim the sun from time-to-time.
As mentioned in our discussion yesterday, there are some question marks as we head into the weekend, more specifically later in the weekend. Most of these questions revolve around how warmer and more humid air will move into Central New York. We still think it will be warmer and more humid by early next week (no change there); we are just more concerned that the process of getting that air into Central New York will have to cause clouds and even a few showers and thunderstorms to develop. For starters, we have introduced some extra cloud cover to Saturday’s forecast but we are keeping it dry. As the warmer, more humid air approaches us on Sunday, we are going introduce a low chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
By early next week it still looks like Central New York will be in a warm and more humid air mass. Having said that, there is also some question as to how warm temperatures will get next week. Naturally, the amount of sun (or conversely cloud cover) will have a large say. However, so will the placement of the frontal boundary, or if the frontal boundary is over CNY or solidly to our north. If the front is not on top of us, then a warmer outcome is more likely, if not, then the warmest air would stay south, thus cooler temperatures would occur. Regarding the threat for showers and thunderstorms, our chances for showers and thunderstorms will be low initially, but as the aforementioned frontal system approaches during the middle of the week, our chances will increase. This front is not likely to clear the region and the Northeast until later Thursday.