Colder air will filter into central New York during the upcoming weekend. It will be quite a change from the near 40 degree weather we’ve enjoyed over the past few days. The first push of colder air will come in tonight as a cold front moves through. That will cause a limited amount of lake effect snow showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Any accumulation will be light, on the order of a trace-1”
The initial push of cold will be over us Saturday and the winds will remain out of the northwest most of the day. That might seem to be a favorable set up for this time of year but it looks like the atmosphere will be rather dry which means any snow showers that will be around will be rather weak and disorganized.
The most winter-like day of the weekend will come on Sunday. Low pressure (which we’ve touched upon in this discussion during the week) will form off the New England coast and rapidly strengthen as it heads up into the Canadian Maritimes (A Blizzard Watch is up for Downeast Maine!). Although this storm won’t impact us directly, it will still influence our weather. As the storm strengthens, the winds over us will pick up. That will yank a reinforcing push of cold air in over us to end the weekend. That will combine with temperatures in the teens to cause our wind chills to drop below zero at times. As winds over us shift from northerly in the morning to northwesterly in the afternoon, lake effect snow will become better organized. The best chance for accumulating lake effect snow will come later Sunday afternoon into the evening.
The shot of cold air for the weekend should begin to exit our region by Monday afternoon as high temperatures return to the mid or upper 20s…still below average but a 10 degree improvement upon Sunday. A storm system is forecast to take aim on the region Tuesday. Exactly how this storm track will have a large role as to what we see with regards to precipitation type. For now, we’ll call for rain and/or snow, however, we should have a better handle on what falls by Sunday or Monday. More snow showers and lake effect is possible behind the system for Wednesday.