Cold air flowing over Lake Ontario will continue to produce light lake effect snow through tonight. A couple of subtle changes will mean that while the snow will be persistent, it won’t be anywhere near as intense. Winds are a bit more northwesterly, so the cold air is crossing a narrower expanse of water. Also, the northwesterly winds are drawing in much drier air from the north, so that has led to further weakening. Additionally, winds are becoming lighter, so that will cause the lake snows to contract closer to the shoreline of Lake Ontario.
Most areas in CNY will see snowfall overnight of 2-6”, but locally higher amounts are possible right along the Lake Ontario shoreline in Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, where new snowfall overnight could be on the order of 6 or more inches. For many of us, the big weather story will be the cold. Overnight lows approaching zero, combined with light northwesterly winds, will create wind chills of -10 to -15 Wednesday morning.
Light lake effect snows will continue through the day Wednesday. Accumulation will be light, with the exception right along the south shore of Lake Ontario, where several inches (not feet) of snow are possible. Temperatures Wednesday will struggle to rise to near 10, with wind chills of -5.