Clouds move in tonight, rain expected Thursday
A storm system developing in the Midwest will bring severe weather to the Ohio Valley tonight and rain to central New York tomorrow. Here is the set up. As of late afternoon Wednesday low pressure was situated over Iowa with a wavy warm front stretching east through the Ohio Valley. Showers and heavier thunderstorms will break out south of this front in a very warm and humid air mass.
As low pressure heads east along the front and into Pennsylvania Thursday it will strengthen and behave more like a winter time Nor’easter. While heavy thunderstorms impact areas south of this low north of the low a steady rain will fall. Our computer models have come into better agreement on how tonight’s strong thunderstorms will impact the development of the low. It looks like the heaviest rain will end up falling south of Syracuse and the Thruway corridor Thursday closer to the Pennsylvania border. This matches up with counties south of Syracuse (closer to Ithaca, Cortland and Norwich) that are under Flood Watch from Thursday into Friday morning. In these heavy rainfall area, 1-2” of rain could still fall.
By Friday, that low we mentioned above will be off the Atlantic seaboard south of New England and heading east out to sea. On the back side of the circulation from this low there could still be a few showers or even a thunderstorm. However, there are now signs that by mid to late afternoon enough dry air will move from the northwest to allow for some sunshine to break out across central New York.
The drier air late Friday is part of a high pressure system that will build into the Northeast for Saturday. We still expect warmer and more humid air to push toward central New York on Sunday but we may not feel the effects of this (scattered showers and storms) until later in the afternoon. That means a large share of the upcoming weekend will be rain free.
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