On this afternoon's weather map, a cold front or the leading edge to colder air, is now east of Central New York. High pressure is evident behind the cold front over the Upper Great Lakes region with low pressure organizing over the Rocky Mountain States.
With the cold front now to our east, a freshening breeze will import noticeably cooler air into the region this afternoon. By early tomorrow, the aforementioned area of high pressure is projected to be situated near Niagara Falls as low pressure moves off the Rockies and into the northern Plain States. As a result, skies will clear tonight and allow temperatures to drop into the teens in rural areas to 20s in urbanized areas.
With high pressure forecast to move through the region tomorrow, we should find plenty of sunshine as we kick off the weekend. However, with the high forecast to shift off the East Coast, it will make room for that area of low pressure to our west. Clouds well in advance of the storm center will creep into Central New York during the afternoon and thicken Saturday night. By early Sunday, the low is forecast to be centered over Georgian Bay, or northwest of Toronto. Extending east from the low center will be a warm front, the leading edge to warmer air. This warm front will eventually move through the region and allow for brisk southwest winds to import a shot of much warmer air into Central New York.
However, with the passage of the warm front and with the low center passing to our north, we will need to include at least the threat, if not the likelihood, for a period or two of rain showers. High temperatures on Sunday should flirt or exceed 60 degrees!
Right now it looks like we may sneak in another warm day Monday as Sunday’s storm moves east and we start the day with some sun. However, a second storm system will bring clouds and eventual rain later Monday.
Thereafter, much uncertainty still exists.
In the wake of the second area of low pressure, a front will move through Central New York and whether that front stays south or north of the region will determine our weather in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, more specifically our temperature. Right now, the consensus from most (but not all) of our computer models is that the front will stay just to our south keeping our temperatures near or just below normal. It should be noted, if Central New York were on the “warm” side of the front then we could have high temperatures in the 60s or 70s! Again, there is still uncertainty with this part of the forecast so make sure to check back over the next few days.