A coastal low pressure system begins to push out to sea on Sunday, dragging behind it an upper level disturbance that will pass right over central New York. This will fuel some snow showers, which may develop into squalls on Sunday afternoon and evening. High pressure builds in afterwards, making for a better work week start.
For tonight, expect the cloudy conditions to continue. Temperatures fall slow and steady, so any rain showers that are left over will change to snow flakes. However, we’re not expecting any significant accumulations. No more than a coating will be on the ground by Sunday morning.
Winds become more west/northwesterly on Sunday, allowing for lake effect snow to set up east of Lake Ontario. As the aforementioned upper level disturbance passes by, snow showers become more widespread into the afternoon. The threat for possible squalls, or isolated heavy snow showers, will be around through the afternoon and evening. Visibility may greatly drop in a snow squall, which can make travel difficult at times. No major accumulation is expected from this system as temperatures will be just above the freezing mark.
A break is expected for us Monday as we will be between storm systems. By that point, however, we’ll be watching the next system (another area of low pressure) pulling out of the middle of the country. This system will tap into the Gulf of Mexico so it should have plenty of moisture to work with and will track up through the Appalachians Tuesday into Wednesday. As for precipitation type, the forecast is tricky since temperatures will likely be above freezing, but may be cooler aloft. We’ll be keeping an eye on how things play out as new computer model runs come in.
By the middle of the week, the jet stream over North America will be evolving into a blocked pattern. That means once low pressure makes it into the Northeast it will not be in any hurry to leave. That means you can expect an unsettled pattern over the Northeast and central New York right into the start of March.