The weather over central New York is rather quiet this afternoon. Some Atlantic moisture crept northward last night and caused mostly cloudy skies over us. Some of those clouds are ‘mixing out’ as a bit of a breeze brings drier air down to the ground. We expect a mix of sun and clouds through the afternoon.
By Wednesday morning, a cold front, the leading edge to colder air, is forecast to move east and should be positioned from southern Ontario, Canada south through to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Currently, we expect the cold front to move through Central New York sometime Wednesday afternoon. As the front approaches, clouds will take over with a few showers likely announcing the passage of the front.
A shot of cold air will move in tomorrow night and Thursday. The latest guidance suggests there should be about a 12-18 hour window where favorable conditions for lake effect rain showers will exist. In fact, the air may be cold enough for graupel to fall (technically snow, but looks more like ice pellets). Right now it looks as though areas near and north of the Thruway will stand the best chance for lake effect precipitation.
As high pressure builds in from the west Thursday, any lake effect showers will end before midday with partial sun thereafter. Another cold front is forecast to move through the region late Thursday night and/or early Friday morning. That front will bring with it the risk for scattered rain showers.
High pressure is forecast to move in fairly quickly behind the front, thus limiting the lake effect potential Friday. If your garden managed to escape frost this morning, it’s unlikely the same will occur Saturday morning as a widespread killing frost or freeze is a good bet. Strong southwest winds will bring much warmer air as well as the threat for showers Sunday.