On this morning’s weather map, high pressure remains in control over the Northeast and will supply the region with one last sunny, warm and dry day. Farther south, a cut-off low, or low pressure removed from the main jet stream flow, is evident over the Southeast.
Believe it or not, this cut-off low first formed late last week over the middle of the country and was responsible for the chilly and snowy weather from Arkansas to Minnesota. Although there is no snow left with this system, it is bringing cool and wet weather to the southeastern United States. Over the coming days, this system will slowly track northeast and is forecast to be centered west of Baltimore by early Thursday. While the center of the low will likely stay to our south and east Thursday and Friday, it will be close enough to spread moisture into Central New York. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday for much of the region.
Looking ahead to Friday, the cut-off low is forecast to drift off the East Coast. However, there are some indications that a separate storm system may form over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions and move east and impact the region later in the day Friday. This scenario would result in widespread showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, at some point Friday. However, and unfortunately, not all computer models are on board with this set-up. In fact, other reliable computer models, specifically the trusty European Model, have little rain Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms reserved for Saturday. In fact, that particular model suggests widespread showers may stay well southwest of CNY Friday and would wail until Saturday to impact our region as it interacts with a strong cold front that’s forecast to move through the area later Saturday. In short, there is a fair bit of uncertainty has to how the weather details will play out, thus, leading to a lower-than-normal confidence in our forecast late this week and early this weekend.
We are certain, however, that sharply cooler air will arrive Sunday and Monday as the cold front moves east of the region. Once this happens, expect chilly air to be for a couple days along with the threat for a few rain showers. Looking even farther down the pike, the colder air looks to be brief as computer models suggest another round of warm air may arrive sometime early next week.