A weak disturbance in the jet stream passing overhead, has brought a few showers into central New York early tonight. Given the movement of the rain, it's possible that we might see a break in the rain for Wednesday morning's commute. The clouds and a south wind will keep temperatures mild tonight. The south winds are ahead of a cold front, which will be a factor in our weather Wednesday. As the cold front gets closer to us, the showers should become more widespread in the late morning and afternoon. We may even warm enough during the afternoon for some thunderstorms to form. However, we aren’t expecting severe weather.
The cold front will eventually pass tomorrow night, setting the stage for a cooler Thursday. Again, winds look to be too northerly for lake effect to be an issue. With drier air moving in during the day there will be more and more in the way of sunshine as we go through the afternoon.
Earlier today we mentioned our concern about moisture creeping back as early as Friday. The trend from our computer models this afternoon is for rain showers to move far enough north to cause at least a few showers over central New York. We are introducing a low chance for showers for Friday to end the week.
No change in our thinking for the weekend: still looks unsettled. A storm in the upper atmosphere will try to ‘cut off’ to our west over the Great Lakes and low pressure down at the ground tries to form along or off the Northeast coast. There are still questions as to how this all evolves. Because of the uncertainty we are going to keep our rain chances low for Saturday through Monday. As things become more certain we may to increase the probability for rain one or two of those days. Stay tuned.