On this morning’s weather map and Doppler radar imagery, rain is evident over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions as tropical moisture is streaking north along and ahead of a sharp cold front. The cold front, presently located over the eastern Great Lakes region through to the Deep South, will efficiently wring out the moisture as it plows into a relatively humid air mass.
The upshot of it all will be for rain to fall for much of the day. However, as the cold front closes in on the region, a band of heavier rain and thunderstorms will likely form. In addition to the rain, strong south winds will develop and persist much of the day. In fact, winds may gust past 50 mph over parts of the region. Thus, a Wind Advisory has been hoisted for Tompkins, Cortland, Chenango, Madison, Oneida and Lewis Counties. Winds will be especially strong is this area, and in particular, over higher elevations.
The concern is that as the cold front approaches and triggers heavier rain/thunderstorms this afternoon there may be some interaction with the stronger wind aloft. It should be noted that winds of 70-80 mph are forecast from 4000-6000 feet this afternoon. The concern is that if thunderstorms can adequately form, the stronger wind may be brought down to the surface. Right now indications are that the greatest threat for this scenario is just south and east of Syracuse.
Once the cold front passes to our east this evening, the steadier rain will end as much cooler air filters into the region. Winds will likely remain brisk, but this time from the west and northwest, as air pressure is forecast to rise rather sharply. The chilly wind crossing over Lake Ontario will likely induce lake effect rain showers for a while later tonight and tomorrow. Milder and drier air will arrive for the final days of summer with autumn (starting Saturday) arriving on an unsettled and eventually cooler note.